Technology policy doesn't emerge fully formed. It evolves through distinct stages, each shaped by the interplay of innovation, public concern, and institutional capacity. Understanding this "governance curve" is essential for anyone working in tech policy today.
The four stages of tech policy evolution
In my work at ICANN and previously at Twitter, I've observed that technology governance typically moves through four phases.
Stage 1: Permissionless innovation. New technologies emerge and develop largely without regulatory oversight. This is where cryptocurrencies were a decade ago, and where AI was until recently. The focus is on experimentation and growth.
Stage 2: Reactive regulation. As technologies scale and problems emerge, whether privacy breaches, misinformation, or market concentration, governments respond with targeted interventions. These are often reactive and piecemeal.
Stage 3: Comprehensive frameworks. Mature policy environments develop holistic regulatory approaches. Think GDPR for data protection, or India's Digital Personal Data Protection Act.
Stage 4: Adaptive governance. The most sophisticated stage involves regulatory systems that can evolve with technology, using sandboxes, principles-based regulation, and multistakeholder collaboration.
India's position on the curve
India presents a fascinating case study. Different technology sectors sit at different points on this curve.
- Digital payments (UPI): Stage 4. India has developed world-leading adaptive governance for fintech.
- Data protection: Moving from Stage 2 to Stage 3 with the DPDP Act.
- AI governance: Still largely in Stage 1, with regulatory frameworks only beginning to emerge.
- Internet governance: Firmly in Stage 3 and 4, with sophisticated multistakeholder models.
What this means for policy professionals
Understanding where a technology sits on the governance curve helps anticipate what comes next, and identify opportunities for meaningful intervention.
The most effective policy professionals aren't those who react fastest to crises, but those who can anticipate where the curve is heading and help shape appropriate responses before problems become entrenched.
For those building careers in tech policy, this framework offers a few practical insights.
- Timing matters. Different stages require different skills. Early-stage work is about research and agenda-setting; later stages require implementation and enforcement expertise.
- Comparative analysis is powerful. Looking at how other jurisdictions have moved along the curve can inform India's approach.
- Multistakeholder engagement is essential. No single actor can move governance effectively. Building coalitions across government, industry, and civil society is crucial.
Looking ahead
As I work on internet governance at ICANN and continue building Public Policy India, I'm constantly struck by how much the policy landscape is evolving. The next five years will see dramatic shifts in AI governance, platform regulation, and digital public infrastructure.
Those who understand the governance curve, and who can help institutions navigate it effectively, will be essential to ensuring that technology serves the public interest.
This piece was originally published in Hindustan Times, with additional reflections added since.